Flags of the European Union and the United States.
Why does this specific date matter? It’s the deadline for trade negotiations between the U.S. and European Union before the tariffs axe (maybe) falls once again.
But President Donald Trump’s tendency to move deadlines makes it tricky to commit to a big coverage plan when the date could become redundant. However — as we saw with the surprise framework agreed between the U.S. and China in Geneva back in April — you also can’t afford to underplay the deadlines’ significance.
What we do know is that a full trade deal is “impossible” before the deadline, in the words of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and that the best Brussels can hope for is an “agreement in principle.”
We should get some clues from Brussels on Tuesday and Wednesday, as European finance ministers gather for their regular meeting in Brussels.
Cartel capital
Another assignment that is much more definitive: the OPEC Seminar. The circus rolls back into Vienna as the oil producers’ International Seminar takes place at the city’s grand Hofburg Palace on Wednesday and Thursday. The meeting offers delegates two days of discussion and analysis on energy security and investment.
OPEC+ members — a wider group that includes non-OPEC oil producers, including Russia — meet this weekend to decide on another (highly anticipated) output hike amid a volatile month for crude prices.
At the Seminar, ministers will also be joined by the CEOs of some of the world’s largest energy companies, including BP and Shell. CEOs Murray Auchincloss and Wael Sawan will be the center of attention as market watchers and journalists alike look for any clues that a much-denied takeover could still be in the cards.